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Santa Rosa’s average gas price has dropped to about where it was before skyrocketing earlier this month, and analysts are forecasting gas will continue to get cheaper for at least a few weeks.

AAA on Monday reported that the average price for regular was $4.16 a gallon compared to the $4.15 in late September before an oil pipeline in the state was shut, a Southern California refinery was knocked off line by a power failure and two refineries shut for maintenance.

That all led to a painful record price of $4.65 on Oct. 10.

Gregg Laskoski, a senior petroleum analyst for gasbuddy.com, predicts “we’ll probably will continue to see prices coming down incrementally now through Thanksgiving.” Beyond that, he says, it’s “50-50″ whether prices keep falling.

He said the hurricane blasting into the Northeast isn’t expected to affect gas prices west of the Mississippi River.

Local prices have fall sharply in the past week, from $4.436 a week ago. But they’re still higher than the $3.845 average of a year ago.

Some local stations really have dropped prices and are much lower than the current $4.16 average. Costco in Santa  Rosa and Rohnert Park is selling regular for $3.85, and a few Arco stations are a few cents more.

The drop also means California no longer has the most expensive gas in the nation. That honor goes to Hawaii at $4.351. The cheapest is Missouri at $3.187.

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